moderntax.nz

The other side of the ledger · Treasury data

Where the load goes

Under PAYE, the cost of government is deducted before you ever see it — which is why almost nobody reads the bill. This page is the bill, itemised: $141.7 billion of core Crown spending in FY2025, $9.3 billion more than the Crown earned. A tax you can see deserves spending you can question — here is where to start.

Spend 01 Bill of quantities — the breakdown

Three functions and an interest bill carry three-quarters of it

Welfare, health and education account for $98.7 billion — 70% of everything the core Crown spends. Add the interest on past deficits and you reach 76%. Everything else the state does — police, courts, defence, roads, environment, housing, culture — fits in the remaining quarter.

Two lines deserve a hard look. NZ Superannuation alone costs $23.2 billion — more than the entire education system — and is forecast to reach $30.9 billion by 2030. And finance costs of $8.9 billion are pure deadweight: interest on money already spent, now the fourth-largest function of the New Zealand state.

This page is the itemised bill; our companion site taxdollars.nz lets you explore the same $141.7 billion interactively — every line, what it costs per person, and where your own tax goes.

Exhibit S-1 Core Crown expenses by function, FY2025 — $141.7 billion Treasury's audited functional classification, year ended 30 June 2025.
Services & transfers Finance costs — interest on past deficits
Data table & source
FunctionFY2025Share

Source: Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand, year ended 30 June 2025, Fiscal Indicator Analysis — Expenses by Functional Classification (p. 160); Treasury's classification labels the top line "social security and welfare". NZ Superannuation from Note 8, Transfer Payments and Subsidies.

NZ Superannuation
$23.2b
More than all of education. Forecast $30.9b by 2030 — up 33% in five years.
Finance costs
$8.9b
Interest on past deficits — 4.6× what it was in FY2021.
The deficit (OBEGALx)
−$9.3b
FY2025 spending beyond revenue, adding to the debt behind the interest bill.
Net core Crown debt
41.8% GDP
$182 billion — each point of interest rate matters now.
Spend 02 Detail drawings — inside the big three

Open the three biggest boxes

"Welfare", "health" and "education" are labels on boxes, and labels hide things. Opened up, the audited accounts tell a sharper story: half of all welfare transfers is NZ Superannuation — $23.2 billion before the first Jobseeker dollar is counted. Hospitals absorb over half of health delivery. And the third-biggest line in schooling isn't teachers or ECE — it's the school property portfolio, at $3.4 billion a year. This is the level of detail a visible tax bill invites voters to read.

Exhibit S-1a Welfare, line by line — $44.7b of transfer payments, FY2025 (audited) Every row of Note 8 in the government's audited accounts. NZ Super is 52% of the lot; the three main working-age benefits together are $9.6b — well under half of Super.
NZ Superannuation
$23.2b · 52%
Jobseeker & emergency benefit
$4.6b · 10%
Supported living payment
$2.7b
Family tax credit (WfF)
$2.4b
Sole parent support
$2.3b
Accommodation assistance
$2.2b
KiwiSaver subsidies
$1.0b
International development co-operation
$953m
Hardship assistance
$755m
Paid parental leave
$709m
Other social assistance (incl. childcare)
$692m
Student allowances
$574m
Winter energy payment
$562m
Other Working for Families credits
$561m
Disability assistance
$492m
Orphan's / unsupported child
$402m
Best Start tax credit
$346m
Income-related rent subsidy
$192m

Source: FSGNZ 2025, Note 8 — Transfer Payments and Subsidies (p. 71), audited actuals, total Crown; rows sum exactly to the note's $44,679m. The note spans all functions, so it includes international development co-operation and student allowances (paid via Vote Social Development). The $47.5b welfare function total additionally carries non-transfer spend — MSD operating costs, disability support services ($2.6b, delivered by MSD since Sept 2024), employment programmes and similar.

Exhibit S-1b Health, by appropriation — $26.8b of delivery spending, 2024/25 Hospitals take 55% of the delivery money; all primary, community and public health together takes a third; the national medicines budget is about six cents in the health dollar.
Hospital & specialist services
$14.8b · 55%
Primary, community & public health
$9.1b · 34%
Pharmac — medicines budget
$1.7b
Hauora Māori services
$766m
Ministry of Health — stewardship & regulation
$231m
Other (Pharmac ops, gambling levy programmes, redress)
≈$120m

Source: Vote Health, Estimates of Appropriations 2025/26 — 2024/25 estimated actuals, expense-type appropriations (the audited accounts don't publish a health line-item split). Mental health is not separately appropriated — it sits inside both delivery lines. On top of these sit ~$3.2b of capital-type items (hospital builds, the $1.3b Holidays Act remediation, pay-equity injections), which with accrual differences bridge most of the gap to the $30.3b health function total. Disability support services ($2.6b) are classified under welfare, not health.

Exhibit S-1c Education, by appropriation — $21.4b across two votes, 2024/25 Property is the sleeper: at $3.4b a year the school estate costs more than all early learning — and almost as much as every secondary teacher and operations grant combined.
Primary schooling (Years 0–8)
$4.7b · 22%
Tertiary education (whole vote, expenses)
$3.9b · 18%
Secondary schooling (Years 9–13)
$3.5b
School property portfolio
$3.4b
Early learning (ECE)
$3.0b
Learning support & interventions
$1.2b
NZQA, MoE stewardship & other
≈$711m
Teaching quality & curriculum
$404m
School lunches
$275m
School transport
$267m

Sources: Vote Education and Vote Tertiary Education, Estimates of Appropriations 2025/26 — 2024/25 estimated actuals, expense-type appropriations. Student allowances ($574m) are paid through Vote Social Development and appear in the welfare table above, not here. The two votes' expense lines total ~$21.4b against the $20.9b education function — the ~$0.5b difference is mostly the school-property capital charge, an intra-Crown payment eliminated in the audited consolidation.

NZ Super's share of transfers
52%
$23.2b of $44.7b — more than every working-age benefit and family credit combined.
Hospitals' share of health delivery
55%
$14.8b — half the health dollar is spent after people are already sick.
The school estate
$3.4b/yr
Property — the third-biggest line in schooling, ahead of all early learning.
Working-age main benefits
$9.6b
Jobseeker + supported living + sole parent — 41% of what Super alone costs.
Spend 03 Load history — the trajectory

The state's size is a choice. The interest bill isn't.

Over 25 years, core Crown spending has moved between roughly 28% and 34% of GDP — rising in crises (the GFC, COVID), and settling back only partly afterwards. The architecture takes no side on where in that band New Zealand should sit: that is Parliament's argument to have, visibly, at elections. What the architecture insists on is that the argument be honest — paid for with visible rates on durable bases, not with bracket creep or with borrowing whose costs land on the next generation's ledger as "finance costs".

Because that last line is the one nobody votes for. The interest bill collapsed to $1.9 billion in FY2021, then more than quadrupled in four years as deficits and rates returned. Treasury forecasts it at $13.4 billion by FY2030 — by then bigger than defence, law & order and transport combined. Every dollar of it buys nothing.

Sources: Treasury Fiscal Time Series 1972–2025 (history) · HYEFU 2025 (forecasts). OBEGALx is the Government's headline balance measure, excluding ACC.

Exhibit S-2 Core Crown expenses, % of GDP FY2000–FY2025 — the crisis spikes are visible; so is how slowly they unwind.
Exhibit S-3 Finance costs — actual and forecast Core Crown, $ billions. Interest on past deficits, heading for fourth-biggest function of the state.
Actual HYEFU 2025 forecast
Spend 04 Value engineering — where savings hide

The architecture finds savings the scalpel can't

Every government hunts line-item savings, and the recent record shows exactly what the scalpel yields. Budget 2024 set every agency a 6.5–7.5% baseline target and found $1.5 billion a year; the consultant-and-contractor purge cut $915 million over two years — double its target. Real money, hard won — and ultimately about 1% of spending, with public-service headcount already drifting back up by March 2026.

The deeper savings sit in the structure: money spent collecting, complying with, and churning a tax system far more complicated than the state it funds. None of it appears as a Budget line called "waste" — it's spread across IRD's running costs, 400,000 businesses' accounting bills, and a transfer system that taxes the same families it pays. This is the layer the architecture removes by design rather than by review.

Cost to collect $100 of tax
46¢
Down from 80¢ in 2015 — IRD's own metric. Proof that collection cost tracks system design.
Median SME compliance bill
$5,749/yr
Plus 32 hours. PAYE is the biggest line at 26 median hours — GST takes 16.
Working for Families churn
$3.0b/yr
To 328,400 families — ~80% paid to working households that pay PAYE at the same time.
Budget 2024 baseline savings
$1.5b/yr
What an all-of-government scalpel exercise actually found.
Saving one — the collection machine
A tax office with half the products
IRD spent $752.7m and 4,526 staff in 2024–25 administering income tax, GST, company tax — and the social-policy machinery bolted to income tax: Working for Families, FamilyBoost, student loans, child support. Its cost-to-collect fell from 80¢ to 46¢ per $100 as PAYE was automated; remove personal income tax, RWT and FIF entirely and the remaining system — GST (chain-collected) and a concentrated company tax — is the cheap half. The load test counts half of IRD's budget; the structural logic says that's conservative.
Saving two — the compliance economy
Hours back for 398,000 businesses
IRD's own survey: the median small business spends 32 hours and $5,749 a year on tax compliance, 91% of them paying external accountants — roughly $2.3b a year across all SMEs, before you count the mean being higher than the median. The single biggest time cost is PAYE (26 median hours) — the tax this architecture abolishes. The last full estimate put business tax compliance at 2.5% of GDP; none of it buys a single nurse.
Saving three — the churn loop
Stop taxing and refunding the same families
Treasury's own analysis: transfers exceed tax paid across the bottom four income deciles, and stacked abatements leave 30% of single-parent families facing effective marginal tax rates over 50% — some over 100%. Working for Families exists largely to hand back income tax that low-to-middle-income workers should arguably never have paid; the loop has generated $273.5m of debt owed by 56,800 families, and FamilyBoost — budgeted $174m — delivered its designed maximum to precisely 304 households. With no income tax on wages, much of that circular machinery has nothing left to refund.

And the incentive to stop buying growth

One more line deserves scrutiny: the state paid out about $2.3 billion in subsidies in 2024 (Stats NZ), including $180.8m of film rebates in a single year — $1.5 billion over the past decade, by the Government's own count. Some of it evaluates well, some doesn't (Motu found Callaghan growth grants returned $0.83 per dollar). The architecture's incentive clause cuts at the root: a government whose revenue rises automatically with spending, land value and profits doesn't need to purchase growth stories with grants — it gets paid by growth itself, wherever growth happens. And every dollar of genuine saving compounds: the interest bill on past deficits is already $8.9b and heading for $12.8b by 2029.

Sources: IRD Annual Report 2024–25 (departmental expenses $752.7m; 4,526 FTEs; cost of collection 46¢ vs 80¢ in 2015) · IRD SME compliance cost survey 2024 (median 32 hrs / $5,749; PAYE 26 hrs; 91% use external professionals) · Sandford & Hasseldine (1992), business tax compliance ≈ 2.5% of GDP (1990) · IRD WfF statistics ($3,043m, 328,400 families) · IRD WfF consultation 2025 (~80% IR-paid; $273.5m debt) · Treasury AN 23/03 & AN 25/01 (net-tax and EMTR analysis) · IRD OIA on FamilyBoost · Treasury, Budget 2024 Summary of Initiatives ($1.5b/yr baseline savings) · Beehive/PSC (consultant spend −$915m; workforce partially rebounding by Mar 2026) · Stats NZ GFS (subsidies $2.3b, 2024) · NZ Film Commission 2024–25 ($180.8m rebates) · Motu WP 25-11 (growth grants bang-for-buck 0.83) · BEFU 2026 (finance costs to $12.8b by FY2029). The $2.3b SME aggregate is our own multiplication of IRD's median by the SME count — a floor, since means exceed medians.